cowboy me, 2.0: jose nazario beauty and the street

Four short links: 9 November 2013

San Francisco, Ann Arbor, stock market, Wall Street

Mobile is eating the world, autumn 2013 edition Benedict Evans -- I've been giving versions of this deck in London and San Francisco, and I though it worth sharing here.

Roger @ Zingerman's Delicatessen -- SaveZingerman's Delicatessen9.3422 Detroit St (at E Kingsley St.), Ann Arbor, MIDeli / BodegaReturn to check-inAnn Arbor, MI |

Be Prepared For Stocks To Crash - Business Insider -- But a careful study of history suggests that a crash is increasingly likely and that long-term stock returns from this level are likely to be crappy. His remarks include the assertion that stocks are still attractively valued, based on his estimate of the equity risk premium. See Investment, Speculation, Valuation, and Tinker Bell for a full discussion of the Fed Model, equity risk premium calculations, and a variety of far more reliable valuation methods that are tightly associated with subsequent SP 500 total returns. The real concern in 2009 was that even after similar valuations were observed during the Depression, the stock market still went on to lose two-thirds of its value. Prior to the late-1990s bubble, the only time the Shiller P/E was higher was during three weeks in 1929 that accompanied the extreme peak of the market before stocks crashed.

Lessons of Twitters stock pop: Balancing positive press with economic reality | ... -- Veeva, Twitter, FireEye: Vastly different technology companies, all of which saw their stock pop more than 80 percent on their first day trading in the public markets. If the stock price stays level or falls slightly, as it did with Facebooks IPO, that means the company has maximized the amount of cash it could raise from the IPO it found buyers at the maximum price the market would bear. If the stock price rises, however, that means the company sold its shares too cheaply, at a price lower than what the market was willing to pay. Soberg recalled how one company he helped take public, AdForce, spiked in the first days of trading, and employees were really happy it popped so much.

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