Securities market in the near future

[JSuplacz <jarsuplacz_(_at_)_poczta_(_dot_)_onet_(_dot_)_pl>]

2 APR 2003

| Please be careful for next weeks. Indexes will be rising quickly but it
is only a correct wave. In my opinion, S&P500 will rise to 950, DAX
to 3400-3800. On these levels one should take short positions.

My prognoses are aimed in 90-95%. Please check on newsgroups (especially
pl.biznes.wgpw) or visit my

site. Some prognoses were published in financial newspapers.

I am looking for people, funds interested to establish the new
fund/subfund operating on SECURITIES FX markets.

SECURITIES FX FUND

My basic rule is a simultaneously analysis of several markets, indexes.
An analysis of one chart would cause frequent mistakes - from two
reasons: either the situation is too apparent (and the market notice it)
or the situation is doubtful (what makes to be out of the market). An
analysis of several markets, indexes causes that one can curry over a
middle-term cycle to another market and explain which of possibilities
will be realize on a proper market. Only a simultaneously analysis of
markets, indexes shows traps of the analyzed market.

Analyzes of alone market are correct in 70-80% plus often staying out of
the market. Simultaneously analyzes of several charts are correct in 90%
and give more possibilities.

A macroeconomic analysis should be aside to the end of technical
analysis. In fact, fundamental analyses there are emotions and psychology
of whom analyses the market. For example: an appreciation of a currency
is justified that there is a better trade balance. Nevertheless, most
often the better trade balance is the result of a worse situation on the
inland market. The appreciation of the local currency makes worse
situation on the internal market. More difficult situation on the inland
market makes, in spite of the appreciation of the local currency, that
the export dynamically rises. And analyzers will be assert: "In spite of
some problems (but each country in the same time may be in a worse
situation), this country has again and again more competitive economy -
the appreciation of the currency is justified, at all!" Of course to time
(the real adaptation and growth of economy is a longer). Theoretically,
one can take into consideration the profits of companies, but these data
are moved in the time towards a trade balance. Moreover, the data about
the real companies' profits (i.e. the information about a real condition
of firms) are much and much more moved in the time! - one can say at
least by one cycle.

My analysis is based on Elliott and Fibonacci. For FOREX is used
different rules than to securities market. In additional, I have
recognized some rules that are from Fibonacci's interdependencies -
actually, I want to have it for my knowledge. It improves the accuracy of
prognosis to 90-95%. In fact, it is not Fibonacci, but in Fibonacci
algorithms has its genesis. That is, in order, my techniques of analyses.

The expectable profits:

  * 3-4% per month if the fund will be operating only on FX

  * 5-6% per month if there will be also securities (indexes and stocks
    from EuroStoxx50 S&P500). I prefer to take positions on securities
    market than on forex.

More information about my prognoses is on the

site.


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